- Mandela Barnes has a 21-point lead in the Wisconsin Senate Democratic primary, per an internal poll.
- Lt. Gov. Barnes leads his closest rival, Bucks executive-on-leave Alex Lasry, by a 38%-17% margin.
- Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, a high-profile incumbent, is running for a third term in office.
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has an early 21-point lead in the state's Democratic Senate primary, bolstered by strong favorability ratings among respondents, according to internal polling shared with Insider.
In the current multi-candidate race, Barnes has the support of 38% of Democratic voters in the state, according to the survey, which was conducted by Impact Research for the Barnes campaign. The lieutenant governor boasted a 56% favorability rating among primary voters, with 9% having an unfavorable view of him.
His nearest rival was Milwaukee Bucks executive-on-leave Alex Lasry, who received 17% of the vote among primary voters, followed by state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski at 9% and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson at 8%. Three percent of respondents opted for another candidate.
The survey also revealed that 26% of the Democratic primary electorate remains undecided.
"We're building a grassroots campaign and taking our message right to every community across the state," Barnes said in a statement to Insider. "To me, the polls represent what I see when I travel the state: that people know I understand their experience because I share that experience."
The Impact Research survey is based on responses from 449 likely Democratic primary voters from March 16-23, 2022, and has a margin of error of 4.6 percent.
A Marquette University Law School poll released in early March showed the contest with similar dynamics, with Barnes ahead at 23% support, followed by Lasry at 13%, Nelson at 5%, and Godlewski at 3%.
Nearly half — 48% — of all respondents in the Marquette survey were undecided.
Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson — a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump — since he knocked off then-Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold in the 2010 midterm elections.
A victory for Democrats in this critical swing state could help the party in their quest to retain control of the Senate, especially as they will likely face a difficult midterm environment and will have tough races in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, where President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.
In 2016, Johnson was seen as a highly vulnerable incumbent during his rematch with Feingold, but he pulled off a win that year alongside Trump, who defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the presidential race.
In the Marquette poll, 33% of all respondents said they had a favorable view of Johnson, while 45% disapproved of the incumbent senator.
This year's Senate contest is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races in the country, as the state narrowly backed Biden over Trump in the 2020 election, with the president winning by roughly 20,000 votes out of nearly 3.3 million ballots cast.
Barnes — who served in the Wisconsin Assembly from 2013 to 2017 before being elected lieutenant governor on a ticket with now-Democratic Gov. Tony Evers — entered the race last July and has racked up multiple endorsements from state and national lawmakers.
Lasry, Nelson, and Godlewski have also attracted a range of supporters, and the candidates have sought to articulate their respective visions for the future with myriad proposals on health-care reform, climate change, and strengthening workers' rights.
The Democratic candidates have repeatedly criticized Johnson on a range of issues, from his promotion of COVID-19 misinformation to his contention that Wisconsin had "enough jobs" after Oshkosh Defense sought to hire and manufacture its trucks in South Carolina.
The Democratic primary will be held on August 9.